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By yoshibb    2019-06-09

At the top I did mention companies, but I could have been more clear in that regard.

The bias and lateral promotions are the hangup. All the creative talent is going to TV/self publishing because there is no way in.

Twenty years ago, it was fine, because graphics and processing power was limited, and the art/direction was limited by the technology as a result.

Since then the tech has come a pretty long ways, but we haven't had many big cultural phenomenons like Half-life, Doom, or Mario, why? Because other than visual, there is no pipeline for creative talent.

I'm sorry, but being around videogames and coding isn't the same thing as dedicating your life to the arts. The gulf, all the acquired knowledge, shaping, and pre-requisite skills makes all the difference in the world.

Ask an engineer and creative to give you five pitches, and the difference would be the same as asking a non-coder to design and implement your netcode.

It's a gulf, and like I said, it isn't just Valve, it's all big studios. It's an existential issue at this point, and companies like Epic, who are tapping into the talent that engineers love to condescend are completely dominating the new wave of gamers.

There are 100million PC gamers in the US. During peak western hours on steam, we see around 8-10 million players online.

So maybe about 1/4 Americans are on steam, which is probably about the amount of OG half-life fans who are still into gaming.

Nearly everyone else is, which is just a bunch of kids now, is on FN. And all the new adult gamers, women, lgbt, are playing hero shooters.

There is no reason why Valve should remain relevant as a platform, so I'd say valve has about seven years to really turn things around.

The rules have changed, Valve can't compete as a publisher. They might be able to sub sales to match epic, but WePlay is preparing to launch, and they have state funding to subsidize sales and acquire exclusives.

The only way to survive is to provide value through variety and high quality content. There is no other way.

Valve can't race to zero against WePlay, and VR is probably going to end up as a wii like product.

There is still a long way to go in terms of visual fidelity pushing immersion on flat screens. This is only an iphone 7, but it's enough to induce presence

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEerPQHl_4k

We are far from that level of fidelty, but look at the presence . . . can you imagine CS like that?

Also: Did you guys even watch the silicon valley arc on VR? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GsXK0w4CUtg

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