Joe Rogan Experience #1309 - Naval Ravikant
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Naval Ravikant is an entrepreneur and angel investor, a co-author of Venture Hacks, and a co-maintainer of AngelList.
By meowface 2019-08-31
Also as a strict materialist, after reading estimates from lots of different people from lots of different disciplines, and integrating and averaging everything, I think we'll have likely have human-level or above AGI around 2060 - 2080. I think it's relatively unlikely it'll happen past 2100 or before 2050. I'd even consider betting some money on it.
I'm kind of coming up with these numbers out of thin air, but as much of a legend as he is, I agree Carmack's estimate seems way too optimistic to me. It's possible, but unlikely to me.
>The emphasis on computational power also makes no sense to me. If we had infinite compute today, what steps would you take to build AGI? Does anyone have any good ideas about that?
In this interview with Lex Fridman and Greg Brockman, a co-founder of OpenAI, he says it's possible increasing the computational scale exponentially might really be enough to achieve AGIc: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bIrEM2FbOLU. (Can't remember where he said it exactly, but I think somewhere near the middle.) He's also making a lot of estimates I find overly optimistic, with about the same time horizon as Carmack's estimate.
As you say, it can be a little confusing, because both John Carmack and Greg Brockman are undoubtedly way more intelligent and experienced and knowledgeable than I am. But I think you're right and that it is a blindspot.
By contrast, this JRE podcast with someone else I consider intelligent, Naval Ravikant, essentially suggests AGI is over 100 years away: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3qHkcs3kG44. I think he said something along the lines of "well past the lifetimes of anyone watching this and not something we should be thinking about". I think that's possible as well, but too pessimistic. I probably lean a little closer to his view than to Carmack's, though.
By playing_colours 2019-09-18
You comment actually touches some interesting points.
First, one procrastinates only if they decided they should be doing something else at this moment. I am now relaxed and interested in spending some time on HN - you can actually learn something here as well.
Second, being constantly busy, optimising, and improving is a new fashion and decease. It's an unrealistic demand that causes anxiety. You also need to relax, reflect, play, do nothing. https://youtu.be/3qHkcs3kG44?t=1102
Third, it also depends on what is your life goal - be happy, be super successful. I am happy to spend some time on HN, and I do not stress myself over it.
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